The argument that today’s globalized world has too much at stake to risk a seismic unraveling is the same argument that was made in 1914.
Vladimir Putin shakes hands with China's foreign policy chief Wang Yi during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, February 22, 2023. Credit: Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
Too many observers have lost sight of one of the key lessons of World War I. The Great War was triggered by the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in June 1914, which occurred against the backdrop of a long-simmering conflict between Europe’s major powers. This interplay between conflict escalation and a political spark has special resonance today.
With war raging in Ukraine and a cold-war mentality gripping the United States and China, there can be no mistaking the historical parallels. The world is simmering with conflict and resentment. All that is missing is a triggering event. With tensions in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Ukraine, there are plenty of possible sparks to worry about.
Mike Gallagher meets Tsai Ing-wen during his trip to Taiwan, from February 17-20, 2023. Credit: Mike Gallagher's Press Office
Taiwan is a leading candidate. Even if, like me, you do not accept the U.S. view that President Xi Jinping has consciously shortened the
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Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative under Donald Trump, reflects on his decision to launch the trade war with China and begin the process of "strategic decoupling" — a process he says the U.S. must see through to the end.
