For China watchers, the word “war” used to feel comfortably theoretical. Think tanks and policy advisors would game out how a conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea would play, even scenarios bringing major powers into direct military conflict — even though few would bet on things ever escalating to that point. Putin’s euphemistically-termed special military operation in Ukraine, the downwards spiral in Sino-U.S. communications, and the decoupling that has nullified much of the vested economic interest in peace, have combined to make that assumption far less certain. Now, tragically, we must treat seriously the risk of a live conflict this decade with China on one side and a Western power or powers on the other.
Kevin Rudd’s book on just this topic tops this month’s list, providing a sage warning about the risk of war between the U.S. and China, as well as a roadmap to avoiding it. Other titles offer perspectives on how the two nations can manage their competition — as well as a rejoinder that optimism was always naive. As ever, we try to avoid too much doom-and-gloom with recommended titles on Chinese literature and cooking as well. Let us hope it is only a war of words that the future holds.
The One to Read
The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China by Kevin Rudd
As a former prime minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd has decades of experience with China, as both a student of the nation and a politician dealing with it. The fact that his new book, excerpted recently by The Wire, so explicitly addresses war is chastening. He is no alarmist, and behind the title is a sensible appraisal of the paths before China and the U.S., predicated on the idea that there has been a “death of mutual trust” between them that increases the risk of miscalculation. The central protagonist is Xi Jinping, whom Rudd has met several times, and the bulk of the text delineates Xi’s worldview of “concentric circles of interest,” from his vital concerns at home — staying in power, national unity, the economy — to further afield, where securing the periphery, challenging the West and courting the rest are his priorities. Some of the material is not particularly new and feels like filler: a potted history of Sino-U.S. relations, the inevitable mention of the hackneyed Thucydides trap, and a nod to how the forces of nationalism put pressure on leaders. The most powerful part is Rudd’s own case for “managed strategic competition,” involving protocols for strategic redlines if crossed (such as in Taiwan), and agreed boundaries of explicit mutual competition (semiconductors) and cooperation (climate change).
March 22, 2022 | Public Affairs $19.99 | Buy
The Shortlist
The United States vs. China: The Quest for Global Economic Leadership by C. Fred Bergsten
Another book urging cooperation between the U.S. and China tops our shortlist. Here the focus is on the risks of all-out economic — rather than military, cyber or ideological — conflict. The obligatory comparison to the 1930s is fleshed out, with Bergsten warning of the risks of another Great Depression, casting the U.S. today in the role of Britain then — stepping back from its leadership role to allow a destabilizing vacuum (which Bergsten cleverly dubs “G-0”). The book calls explicitly for America to abandon its containment and decoupling policies; and for China to abide by the rules and norms of the current system, rather than attempting to reshape its own “new global economic order.” This case for calmer heads to prevail is similar to Rudd’s (whose “managed strategic competition” becomes “conditional competitive cooperation” in Bergsten’s words… we get the idea). Yet the alternatives presented, of Chinese pre-eminence and U.S.-Sino co-leadership, may not satisfy the American establishment.
April 18, 2022 | Polity $29.95 | Buy
Getting China Wrong by Aaron L. Friedberg
It is always enjoyable when two books — especially from the same publisher in the space of a month — so flatly contradict each other. Friedberg’s argument is, in part, that the pro-engagement crowd (such as Bergsten) are being naïve. Engagement, trade and investment with and in China have helped the nation become an economic powerhouse; yet China has remained autocratic, mercantilist and revisionist. Tapping into the zeitgeist in which engagement with Beijing is a dirty word, Friedberg gives a brief history of the policy (going all the way back to the Cold War), before outlining how the CCP has countered Western attempts to shape China’s development in the spheres of politics, economics and wider national strategy. He rounds off by offering a more robust response in order to “get China right.”
March 25, 2022 | Polity $29.95 | Buy
Deadly Quiet City: Stories from Wuhan, Covid Ground Zero by Murong Xuecun
As Shanghai continues its chaotic lockdown, and new Covid cases lead to tightened restrictions across the nation, this is a timely moment to revisit the original lockdown in Wuhan, over two years ago (how time flies when you’re constantly anxious!). Murong Xuecun is a dissident author and a thorn in China’s shoe, so of course after Wuhan’s lockdown lifted he travelled there to interview citizens about their experience. Through eight profiles of those he talked to, including a doctor, a citizen journalist, and various residents under lockdown, he paints a picture in compelling prose of a city struggling with both isolated uncertainty and autocratic censorship — as he found out himself, when forced out of the city for trying to document what was happening.
March 11, 2022 | Hardie Grant Books $31.91 | Buy
The Subplot: What China is Reading and Why It Matters by Megan Walsh
Amid all the politics-heavy coverage of China, it is essential to understand Chinese society too — and one of the best ways to do that is to know what China is reading. In this short volume, Megan Walsh reads a breadth of Chinese literature so you don’t have to — from literary giants to the new generation, web novels to underground comics, homoerotic slash fiction to dystopian sci-fi — then summarises it in thematic chapters, connecting the readings to what they reveal of China. For cross-reference it pairs well with the newly released Paper Republic Guide to Contemporary Chinese Literature, a list of one hundred short biographies of modern Chinese writers, in A to Z from from A Yi to Zhu Wen.
February 8, 2022 | Columbia Global Reports $15.12 | Buy
Indelible City: Dispossession and Defiance in Hong Kong by Louisa Lim
Lest it fade into normalcy, it bears remembering how Hong Kong has changed in the span of the last years, as well as its unique character that has long resisted assimilation. One of the best journalists of the region, Louisa Lim, has witnessed it all, and here weaves an artful tapestry of the city’s changing yet indelible nature. Starting with street slogans during the 2019 protests, Lim traces the tale back past the 1997 handover to the 1842 opium wars, with a cast of characters from calligraphers to archaeologists. Equally gripping is February’s The Impossible City, a reported memoir of Hong Kong by Karen Cheung, born a few years before the handover, who guides us through the hopeful 00s and rebellious 10s in elegant prose.
April 19, 2022 | Riverhead Books $25.20 | Buy
In Case You Missed It
At the Chinese Table: A Memoir with Recipes by Carolyn Phillips
Something lighter for the reading table, in the interests of a mixed meal: a culinary memoir of China from a cookbook writer. Phillips recounts her years in Taiwan during the 70s and 80s – learning the culture at the same time as its cuisine, all while falling in love and negotiating relations with the in-laws. Their histories, as well as hers, are woven amidst Chinese recipes from Hakka to the northeast. For a more contemporary mix of travel and recipes, try 2018’s Cooking South of the Clouds: Recipes and Stories from China’s Yunnan Province by Georgia Freedman, which takes you on a tour of the southwesterly province where your humble books columnist is based, and can vouch for the food.
June 15, 2021 | WW Norton & Company $16.29 | Buy
Alec Ash is the books editor for The Wire. He is the author of Wish Lanterns. His work has also appeared in The Economist, BBC, SupChina, and Foreign Policy. @alecash
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