Despite growth, China’s economy still faces serious challenges, which can only be addressed with a more expansionary fiscal policy.
Yu argues that retail sales of social consumer goods indicate a not especially positive picture for China’s economy. Credit: Matthias Ripp, Creative Commons
BEIJING – China’s economy seems largely to have bounced back from the COVID-19 shock. It registered 4.9 percent annual growth in the third quarter of 2020, and the rate may well exceed 5 percent growth in the fourth quarter. The result would be at least 2 percent annual full-year growth — not bad at a time when much of the world is facing a pandemic-induced recession. But that doesn’t mean smooth sailing ahead.
Consumption growth is a key consideration in determining China’s likely overall performance in 2020. While final consumption figures for the third quarter are not yet available, total retail sales of social consumer goods offer a useful proxy. Unfortunately, the picture is not particularly bright: though monthly growth in retail sales of social consumer goods has turned positive since August, total sales fell 5.9 percent year on year in the first 10 months of 2020.
The consensus in China is that the annual growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods will
Exclusive longform investigative journalism, Q&As, news and analysis, and data on Chinese business elites and corporations. We publish China scoops you won't find anywhere else.
A weekly curated reading list on China from David Barboza, Pulitzer Prize-winning former Shanghai correspondent for The New York Times.
A daily roundup of China finance, business and economics headlines.
We offer discounts for groups, institutions and students. Go to our Subscriptions page for details.
A decade ago, China arrived on the global art scene with deep pockets and an abundance of swagger. Recently, however, China's economic downturn has caused a spate of museums to close and once prominent collectors to sell their collections. Can China ever achieve its dreams of "cultural self-confidence"?
The Harvard professor discusses the effects on Chinese society of the country's high-tech development, and how the pandemic may have shifted public attitudes.
The Global Intelligence Platform used by The Wire China
