Yu argues that retail sales of social consumer goods indicate a not especially positive picture for China’s economy. Credit: Matthias Ripp, Creative Commons
BEIJING – China’s economy seems largely to have bounced back from the COVID-19 shock. It registered 4.9 percent annual growth in the third quarter of 2020, and the rate may well exceed 5 percent growth in the fourth quarter. The result would be at least 2 percent annual full-year growth — not bad at a time when much of the world is facing a pandemic-induced recession. But that doesn’t mean smooth sailing ahead.
Consumption growth is a key consideration in determining China’s likely overall performance in 2020. While final consumption figures for the third quarter are not yet available, total retail sales of social consumer goods offer a useful proxy. Unfortunately, the picture is not particularly bright: though monthly growth in retail sales of social consumer goods has turned positive since August, total sales fell 5.9 percent year on year in the first 10 months of 2020.
The consensus in China is that the annual growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods wil
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