Yu argues that retail sales of social consumer goods indicate a not especially positive picture for China’s economy. Credit: Matthias Ripp, Creative Commons
BEIJING – China’s economy seems largely to have bounced back from the COVID-19 shock. It registered 4.9 percent annual growth in the third quarter of 2020, and the rate may well exceed 5 percent growth in the fourth quarter. The result would be at least 2 percent annual full-year growth — not bad at a time when much of the world is facing a pandemic-induced recession. But that doesn’t mean smooth sailing ahead.
Consumption growth is a key consideration in determining China’s likely overall performance in 2020. While final consumption figures for the third quarter are not yet available, total retail sales of social consumer goods offer a useful proxy. Unfortunately, the picture is not particularly bright: though monthly growth in retail sales of social consumer goods has turned positive since August, total sales fell 5.9 percent year on year in the first 10 months of 2020.
The consensus in China is that the annual growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods will
Exclusive longform investigative journalism, Q&As, news and analysis, and data on Chinese business elites and corporations. We publish China scoops you won't find anywhere else.
A weekly curated reading list on China from David Barboza, Pulitzer Prize-winning former Shanghai correspondent for The New York Times.
A daily roundup of China finance, business and economics headlines.
We offer discounts for groups, institutions and students. Go to our Subscriptions page for details.
In public, Chinese diplomats and climate negotiators deny that they see any link between climate change and geopolitics. But there is a deeply cynical consensus within China’s academic and policy communities that climate change creates geopolitical opportunities that China can exploit — and must exploit before its rivals do. Greenland was the proof of concept for this strategy. And it caught the U.S. flat-footed.
The EU Chamber of Commerce in China president talks about China's self-inflicted problems; how he gets away with being so outspoken; and why he believes in China's comeback gene.
