Policy makers need to be more realistic about the prospects for future growth, particularly when it comes to China's demographic challenges.
Justin Yifu Lin, an economics professor at Peking University and former World Bank Chief Economist, speaks during a session on emerging economies at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, January 25, 2018. Credit: World Economic Forum via Flickr
Earlier this month, the ratings agency Moody’s cut its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to negative, citing risks from a deepening property crisis and a prolonged growth slowdown. In fact, Moody’s now predicts that annual economic growth will fall to 4 percent in 2024 and 2025, before slowing further, to 3.8 percent, on average, for the rest of the decade. Potential growth will decline to 3.5 percent by 2030. A major driver of this slowdown will be “weaker demographic
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If Xi Jinping is becoming more preoccupied with internal politics, it could lead to a period of relative calm in China’s relations with the United States.
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