Xi Jinping. Credit: World Economic Forum/Manuel Lopez via Flickr
Xi Jinping has botched the political business cycle.
An effective leader — in China or elsewhere — will typically manipulate economic policy to create good short-term conditions and optimism in the run-up to an election or critical meeting. That was the case back in 2017, as Xi was able to push through some tough measures in 2016 before enjoying a smooth recovery in the run-up to the 19th Party Congress.
Today, the situation is the reverse. As China approaches the 20th Party Congress on October 16, the Chinese economy is in its worst shape in recent memory. Some problems have been caused by exogenous, random shocks, but most of them can be directly or indirectly attributed to Xi himself.
Thus, while Xi’s lock on power still seems unshakable, he will likely seek to placate that unknown — but large and growing — section of the Chinese population that is uncomfortable with his economic performance. We should anticipate that he will engineer a modest st
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