Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February, experts in geopolitics had begun speculating about the implications for China’s plans for Taiwan, the independently-run island Beijing has long claimed as its own.

But what of opinion in Taiwan itself? Since the war started 5,000 miles away, many Taiwanese have felt a strong sense of identification with Ukraine, a democracy fighting for its right to exist against a larger neighbor. Yet Russia’s attack has also induced a fresh sense of realism about Taiwan’s preparedness for a potential future war with China, and whether it could count on any help from the U.S. and its allies in such a situation. 

March polling from the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) showed 78 percent of Taiwanese people had little or no confidence that it could hold off an attack from China on its own, a dramatic rise from 47 percent in November 2021, though the polls did not specify whether Taiwan would have outside aid in such an event. Moreover, a majority — 55 percent — believed the U.S. was unlikely to send troops to defend Taiwan were China to invade, up sharply from 29 percent in November.

Other results from the same March poll suggest Taiwanese people have taken inspiration from Ukraine’s fight against Russia: In defiance of many pre-war predictions, Ukrainian forces have so far successfully resisted their opponents in several areas of the country, protecting major cities such as the capital Kyiv from occupation.

Taiwan’s military is transitioning away from conscription toward an all-volunteer army. Yet 75 percent of Taiwanese people now support extending compulsory military service from the current four months to one year, a possibility that Taiwan’s Minister of Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng raised in March. Earlier that month, Taiwan’s military also announced that it would introduce an additional two-week “intensified” training program for Taiwan’s reservists.

The fact that Ukraine has prolonged the war into its third month without direct U.S. intervention has resonated with many Taiwanese people, says Chen-Yi Tu, an assistant research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research — particularly the success of its volunteer military forces and grassroots teams that have helped maintain the country’s territory and digital infrastructure.

“The Ukraine example has shown most people here in Taiwan that it’s still very possible to defend yourself even if you are fighting greater powers,” Tu says. “That has triggered many discussions on the civil defense side [in Taiwan].”

The Ukraine example has shown most people here in Taiwan that it’s still very possible to defend yourself even if you are fighting greater powers

Chen-Yi Tu, assistant research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research

Since 2016, Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), under President Tsai Ing-Wen, has increased defense spending including weapons purchases from the United States: In 2020 alone, former President Donald Trump approved $5.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, while President Biden has approved three sales worth a total of $945 million since last year. Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan has recently approved an extra $8.6 billion in funding for the next five years to boost defense capabilities, on top of an existing annual budget of about $17 billion for 2022. 

The political debate within Taiwan has centered around whether such spending is the best way for the government to prepare the island for a possible attack from the mainland. The main opposition KMT party has maintained that keeping lines of communication open with Beijing is the best way to prevent war from ever occurring.

Alongside such debates, the war in Ukraine has been a broader catalyst for Taiwan’s government to talk more openly with the public and the international community, through media and public statements, about the possibility of an invasion from China — “a major departure from what we have seen in the past,” says Ming-Sho Ho, a professor at National Taiwan University’s department of sociology.

And while many in Taiwan hope that Russia’s difficulties in Ukraine will have dissuaded Beijing from any imminent action, they also agree that Taiwan needs to use any extra time to strengthen its readiness for conflict, especially given the growing uncertainty over how far it can rely on other powers to come to its aid. Some local commentators argue the war in Ukraine should alert Taiwanese officials to chronic issues with its armed forces. 

Civilian oversight of the military has been poor, says Paul Huang, a research fellow at the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation and a defense journalist, potentially compromising its readiness for battle as well as creating a schism between it and the Taiwanese people. Huang says extending compulsory military service is unlikely to be the right answer. 

“[Taiwan’s military] could hardly train conscripts effectively a decade ago when the mandatory service was for one year, let alone the 4-month conscripts in the last several years. What’s the evidence that anything will change now?” he asks, adding that extending the conscription period could wreak havoc with the readiness and morale of Taiwan’s professional, volunteer-based armed forces. “Just because you have more men, it doesn’t translate directly into more fighting capacity,” he says.

Huang’s critique of Taiwan’s military echoes common complaints about the standard of military training during the four-month conscription period, with frequent reports of accidents. The negative association many make between the military and Taiwan’s martial law period, which ended in 1987, is another factor that has undermined the public’s opinion of it.

Others within Taiwan’s defense community say the war in Ukraine has emphasized the need for a greater focus on a bottom-up territorial defense force, something that appears to chime with the broader public mood. 

Grassroots non-profit organizations have long offered civilian defense training courses to Taiwanese interested in learning skills like disaster preparedness and first aid. The war in Ukraine has sparked a new interest among people “from all walks of life,” says Max Chiang, a retired air force captain and the chief executive of Polar Light Training, which cooperates with U.S. civilian-owned military and law enforcement training organizations to offer firearms training and courses on combat skills among other areas. 

Interest from women — who are currently not required to undergo military service — has grown particularly strongly, up eight-fold since the start of the Ukraine conflict, Chiang says. “We must identify the citizens who are ‘truly willing’ to fight and position the right people in the right places,” says Chiang. “It is not necessary for every single person to be a rifleman.”

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