China’s property market is beset by crises. Many of the country’s largest property developers have either defaulted on their debts or are on the verge of doing so. Property and land sales — the lifeblood of local government finances — are declining by double digits. COVID-19 lockdowns, weak business confidence, and tighter financial conditions all present headwinds for the sector.
When property developer Evergrande tumbled into financial distress last year, many analysts immediately drew parallels to the United States on the eve of the 2008 global financial crisis. Evergrande was destined to be China’s Lehman moment, a tipping point for a wider economic turmoil.
These comparisons overlooked the fact that China’s household balance sheet looks very different from America’s before the financial crisis. Weak U.S. household balance sheets were a key factor in igniting a wave of mortgage defaults. Chinese households have less personal debt, more home equity, a
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