
A star-studded cast of world leaders will gather in Hiroshima between May 19th and 21st. Joe Biden will deliver a speech in front of the A-Bomb Dome, focussed on nearly eight decades of reconciliation between the U.S. and Japan.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will warn that the threat of nuclear conflict looms large, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And President Zelensky will play a cameo role, delivering his address by video link from Kyiv, which has recently been subjected to another barrage of Russian drone and cruise missile attacks.
Then, at a grand banquet, the big names of the G7 from Europe, the U.S. and Canada will be joined by Narendra Modi from India, as well as the leaders of Indonesia, Brazil and Comoros. I expect the sushi to be magnificent.
Yet observers who want to understand what this G7 summit means for China should focus their attention on the performance of a high profile guest: Yoon Suk-Yeol, the president of South Korea.
A crucial event from Yoon’s perspective will be a trilateral discussion involving President Biden and Kishida, on May 21st. The outcome could be portentous for China…
South Korea is not a G7 member, although it aspires to join the group. Yoon’s participation this time offers “a chance to elevate Korea’s status in the international community,” according to presidential officials.
A crucial event from Yoon’s perspective will be a trilateral discussion involving President Biden and Kishida, on May 21st. The outcome could be portentous for China, as it will provide another significant marker of how far democratic South Korea is prepared to go as part of a Western-led so-called “alliance against autocracy.”
Already, in early May, Yoon enjoyed a five-day state visit to the United States, where he outlined his new approach towards the Indo-Pacific. The language in South Korea’s strategy closely overlaps with that of the State Department, with pledges to “ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and beyond,” as well as to seek “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

In Washington, Biden was effusive in his praise for Yoon’s “political courage” in seeking rapprochement with Japan. For the time being, the two East Asian countries have agreed to separate historic grievances relating to Japan’s colonial past from their current security concerns.
Kishida is fully on board both with the warming of relations with Seoul, and the broader project of standing against autocracy. He emphasizes Japan’s robust security posture, which he says is motivated by the “grave situation” in East Asia. Last year, his cabinet authorized a sharp rise in defense spending. Among other things, this will fund the purchase of cruise missiles from the United States, which are capable of striking targets on the Chinese mainland.
Like Japan, South Korea has also raised its defense budget, although this is primarily in response to threats posed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs. Following a meeting between Yoon and Biden in Washington in early May, the Department of Defense will dispatch a submarine armed with nuclear warheads to the Korean Peninsula.
Although Tokyo and Seoul follow a “One China” policy and do not offer diplomatic recognition to Taipei, there is mounting concern about tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan is another issue in which the views of South Korea and Japan diverge from those of China. Although Tokyo and Seoul follow a “One China” policy and do not offer diplomatic recognition to Taipei, there is mounting concern about tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
Kishida holds the conviction that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may embolden China to attack Taiwan, causing a catastrophe in East Asia. He therefore wants a strong emphasis on Taiwan in the final communique of the G7 leaders’ meeting.
All of this infuriates China.
Wu Jianghao, China’s envoy to Japan, made his feeling clear, by saying: “If Japan is tied to the chariot of splitting China, the Japanese people will be led into the pit of fire.”
China has had strong words for Korea, too. After Yoon Suk-yeol told Reuters in April that the “Taiwan issue is not simply an issue between China and Taiwan, but like the issue of North Korea, it is a global issue,” the Chinese foreign affairs ministry responded by calling this an “erroneous” reading of the situation.
“Both North and South Korea are sovereign states that have joined the United Nations,” its statement said. “It is a well-known fact that the Korean Peninsula issue and the Taiwan issue are completely different in nature and in latitude and longitude and are not comparable at all.”
Diplomats involved in the G7 summit will face the challenge of trying to encapsulate the views of a fairly diverse group of nations in a joint communique.
Xi will take a starring role at the G20 international summit hosted by Narendra Modi in New Delhi in September. Yoon Suk-Yeol will be there too, ready for dialogue with Xi, should the opportunity arise.
Germany and France may want the group to stick to relatively moderate language in relation to China. However, the U.K. — which is hawkish — is unlikely to object to a clause calling on the PRC to be a “responsible member of the international community.” Canada is also in a hawkish mood. It has recently berated China for interfering with its politics and expelled a diplomat, Zhao Wei.
Intriguingly, this may provide another opportunity for Yoon to elevate South Korea’s status. The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau will spend three days in Seoul before he goes to Japan; a chance to share “the two friendly countries’ shared universal values, such as freedom, democracy and the rules-based international system,” according to the office of the South Korean president at the Blue House.
Xi Jinping, of course, has not been invited to Hiroshima, as despite the size of its economy, China sits firmly outside the G7. Xi will take a starring role at the G20 international summit hosted by Narendra Modi in New Delhi in September. Yoon Suk-Yeol will be there too, ready for dialogue with Xi, should the opportunity arise. His G7 friends — especially Joe Biden — will certainly give him a warm welcome. They like having him around.

Duncan Bartlett is the Editor of Asian Affairs magazine and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute, University of London where he hosts the weekly podcast, China In Context.